Inflation Outlook and Analysis Report – May 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted economic activity, created uncertainty, and weakened global growth conditions. Latest data for the first quarter of 2020 show a sharp contraction in economies most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, partly reflecting the effect of public health counter measures implemented to slow the spread of the virus. The global economy is therefore projected to contract by 3.0 percent in 2020 under the baseline assumption that the pandemic slows in the second half of 2020, and containment measures gradually ease across most countries (IMF, April 2020 WEO).